The Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) yesterday said indications were that the winter crop is in reasonably good condition in some regions of South Africa, although the start of the season was challenging.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, said the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted South Africa’s 2024-25 winter crop by 2% from August to 2.72 million tons.
“This placed the projected harvest only negligibly (i.e.0.04%) less than the previous season. This winter crop encompasses wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. The upward revisions in the CEC’s latest projections were mainly on wheat, canola and sweet lupines,” Sihlobo said.
Agbiz said much of this positive activity is in the Western Cape, a major province in the production of winter crops.
“For example, about 73% of the winter wheat plantings for the 2024-25 season are in the Western Cape,” Sihlobo said.
“The area planted for barley, canola, and oats is much more prominent in the province as a winter rainfall region. Other major winter crop-producing provinces are the Free State, Northern Cape, Limpopo, and North West, but the production in these provinces is mainly under irrigation.”
Sihlobo said when zooming into wheat, the production was estimated at 1.94 million tons, up 2% from last month.
“The upward revision was mainly in the Western Cape, benefitting from favourable weather conditions. Importantly, it appears that the excessive rains at the start of the season may not have caused much damage in the province's wheat production, at least in most regions,” he said.
“The provincial crop is projected to be up 2% from the 2023-24 season, at 1.1m tons of the national expected wheat harvest of 1.94m tons. Still, yearly, the current national wheat crop of 1.94m tons is down 5% from the previous season, indicating lower production outside of the Western Cape.”
He said the production in other provinces was down notably from the previous season.
“We suspect that the mid-summer drought has weighed on the production in the Free State, Limpopo and Northern Cape provinces. Farmers were financially constrained after they lost their summer crop. Moreover, some may have opted to conserve the soil moisture for the start of the 2024-25 summer crop production.”
Besides wheat, barley production prospects remained positive annually, although down on a monthly revision. The CEC lowered the barley harvest prospect by 4% from August to 398 000 tons.
Still, this was 6% higher than the 2023-24 season. With the barley plantings down 7% year-on-year, at an estimated 100 000 hectares, the improved annual harvest prospects are supported by better yield prospects in some regions of the Western Cape.
The 2024-25 canola production is forecast at 294k tons. This is the largest harvest on record, up 25% year-on-year. An expansion in the area underpins the improvement planted and prospects for better yields.
Also worth highlighting is that South Africa's 2024-25 oats production could increase 67% year-on-year to 68 000 tons according to CEC. This significant production resulted from a notable increase in the planted area and positive yield prospects.
“We see similar improvements in sweet lupines, where production is estimated at 19 000 tons, up by 20% year-on-year.”
Sihlobo said the winter crop season was shaping slightly better than the challenging summer crop season.
“Admittedly, we are early in the season, and a lot could change depending on the weather conditions in the coming months. But the figures we have at this point provide some comfort about the size of the supplies. Where production prospects are down notably, the large global wheat production will provide much-needed cushion to the domestic wheat processors and food companies.”
Meanwhile, the Land Bank said it has launched its R1.2 billion Agro Energy Fund (AEF) in 2023 in partnership with the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD).
The AEF is a blended finance scheme, which means it offers a mixture of grant and debt funding. Its objective is to provide funding support for the acquisition of alternative energy assets to assist the industry with energy cost reduction and alleviating the impact of power interruptions on operations.
The scope of the funding is energy-intensive agricultural activities including irrigation, intensive agricultural production systems and on-farm cold chain-related activities.
BUSINESS REPORT