South African farmers intend to plant 4.47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season, which is narrowly up mildly by 1% from the previous season, as reported by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) yesterday.
The intentions for white maize stand at 1.58m hectares—up by 1% year-on-year—while yellow maize is projected to decline slightly to 1.06m hectares, a reduction of 2% from the prior year.
The overall maize planting intentions total 2.64m hectares, marking a minor rise of 0.2% from the previous year and aligning with the five-year average area. In a notable trend, soybean planting intentions have reached a record high of 1.2m hectares, reflecting a 0.2% increase.
Sunflower seed planting intentions are set at 540 000 hectares, a 2.1% increase but still falling slightly short of the average planting of 554 000 hectares.
Meanwhile, the sector anticipates planting 40 000 hectares of groundnuts, down by 2.9%, and an encouraging 54 000 hectares of sorghum, marking a significant 28% increase year-on-year. Dry beans are expected to flourish as well, with planting intentions projected to rise by 14% to 45 000 hectares.
Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), outlined three key factors driving this optimism.
“Firstly, the relatively higher grains and oilseed prices, spurred by a poor harvest last season, provide a strong incentive for increased planting this season,” he stated.
“Secondly, input costs are starting the season in a more favourable position than last year. For example, in rands, fertiliser prices have decreased by around 10% year-on-year as of September 2024. Given that fertiliser constitutes approximately a third of grain farmers’ input costs, this decline significantly boosts their financial outlook.”
Further contributing to this favourable climate are reductions in herbicide and insecticide prices, which have seen year-on-year declines of around 20% and 15%, respectively.
“These reductions, affecting 10% of input costs, are yet another welcome relief for farmers,” Sihlobo added.
The overall resilience of the sector is further bolstered by stabilising fuel prices—especially pertinent as farmers gear up for planting amid high operational costs.
Agbiz is also keeping a close watch on emerging weather patterns, as the potential for La Niña-induced rainfall this summer could positively impact agricultural yields.
Despite a dry early start for many regions, forecasters indicate that the likelihood of La Niña events persists, leading to more stabilised weather patterns in the coming months.
“While we have not seen significant rainfall yet, we remain hopeful that weather conditions will normalise,” Sihlobo said.
Heleen Viljoen, an economist at Grain SA, noted that the latest forecasts indicate a decrease in total white maize production for the 2024-25 season, primarily due to yields affected by mid-summer drought.
However, she highlighted a positive outlook with substantial increases in sorghum and dry beans planting intentions.
“Even though the planting intentions do not always denote a larger harvested area, favourable conditions could potentially yield better production,” she said.
Meanwhile, the third winter grain production report indicates a 1.34% increase in wheat production. However, farmers are contending with low international prices and dwindling margins.
Challenges persist, particularly for barley and oats, with production forecasts showing significant declines due to disease outbreaks impacting barley crops.
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