US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump’s advantage in the vast middle of American society: suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of Reuters/ Ipsos polling shows.
Since President Joe Biden ended his flagging re-election bid on July 21, Vice-President Harris has pulled into the lead in both the large demographic groups, reinvigorating Democrats’ prospects in the November 5 election, though the race remains close.
Suburbanites, who make up about half the US electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key prize.
Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Before he dropped out, Trump was leading him 43% to 40% among suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July.
Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in July.
She led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling across this month and last month. That represents a nine-point swing in the Democrat’s favour, according to the analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from more than 6 000 registered voters.
During the same periods, Trump went from leading Biden 44% to 37% among voters in households that earn between $50 000 (R880 000) and $100 000 – roughly the middle third of the nation – to trail Harris 43% to 45%, also a nine-point swing away from Trump. The figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points.
Trump carried the group 52% to 47% in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.
Reuters/Ipsos surveys have shown voters consider the economy the No 1 issue ahead of the election and in a poll conducted this month, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for the economy, 8 points more than Harris’s 38%.
The polls have also shown Trump as the more trusted candidate on immigration and crime. Trump told supporters in August that he was the candidate that would keep suburbs safe and ensure that illegal migrants were kept “away from the suburbs”.
Trump has blamed the Biden administration for inflation that has hurt middle-class Americans.
Harris has put considerable focus on pledges to increase the size of the middle class. She also is more often picked in polls as the better candidate for protecting democracy and taking a stand against political extremism.
“Her focus on affordability has been highly effective in narrowing Trump’s advantage on inflation and the economy,” said David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report.
Wasserman said Harris appeared to be performing well among relatively affluent suburbanites who could be growing more optimistic about the economy, while her gains among middle-income voters could be due to her campaign’s regular pledges to help middle-class households.
But he noted that voter turnout in Democratic-leaning urban areas and Republican-leaning rural towns could also be critical in deciding the election.
Harris supporters contacted for follow-up interviews this week said they had not paid much attention to her before she became a presidential candidate. They became more supportive of her as they learnt more about her.
The latest of the six polls, conducted from October 4 to 7, showed Harris up a marginal 3 percentage points over Trump among registered voters overall, 46% to 43%.
Her modest edge in national polling is significant although the winner of the election will probably be determined by the results in seven battleground states – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia – where polls have also shown a tight race.
Winning the middle, whether nationally or in the election’s key states, won’t necessarily crown the victor. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who got nearly 3 million votes more than Trump nationwide in the 2016 election and beat him in suburban counties by about 1 percentage point, lost the election when Trump flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2012.
Poll respondent Sheila Lester, an 83-year-old Harris supporter living in Peoria, Arizona, which mostly lies in the state’s battleground Maricopa County, said that she had become convinced Trump would beat Biden.
She said she rejoiced when the Democratic Party quickly coalesced around the candidacy of Harris, especially since she could be the first woman US president.
“The response that she has gotten has made me a little bit more proud of this country,” said Lester, a retired customer service employee who considers herself part of the middle class.
She said she liked Harris’s toughness on abortion rights and her pledge to grow the middle class.