CAPE TOWN – Senior Researcher at Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Dr Ridhwaan Suliman, says from his observations, South Africa’s response to the epidemic has been reactive instead of proactive.
“Except for the early level 5 hard lockdown, generally South Africa has responded when we’ve experienced surges. While case numbers are low and manageable, we can now go out and proactively see where there are outbreaks, where there are resurgences, and control those clusters before they spread,” he said.
The Easter weekend in April is likely to be a contributing factor to the rise in cases if South Africans host mass gatherings with poor ventilation and do not adhere to mask wearing and sanitising.
Experts including Professor Salim Abdool Karim, co-chairperson of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee, and the South African Medical Association (Sama) chairperson, Dr Angelique Coetzee, estimate the third wave could arrive as early as May or June.
Health and social security systems specialist at Wits University, Alex van den Heever says the third wave can come at any time as it is dependent on human behaviour and the residual susceptible population.
“Even through a lot more people are likely to have been infected than publicly reported, the majority of the population in most provinces have not. A third wave could still prove problematic. I think the health system is slightly better prepared than for the second wave, but it has been shown that we can’t really cope with dramatic surges in infections,” said Van den Heever.
Suliman said the Covid-19 testing in the country has been driven by people coming forward to take the test and those who are presenting symptoms.
“I feel there is scope to roll out rapid antigen based tests possibly in schools, workplaces, homes and to try and then identify outbreaks. Then following that up with isolating positive cases and tracking and tracing contacts. This is a proactive response, and this can be done at a district level rather than having to impose national restrictions, which for me, would be the last resort,” he said.
We've flattened the wrong curve, SA! 🤦♂️#COVID19 #CovidVaccine #VaccineforSouthAfrica pic.twitter.com/8aADnvSIOQ
— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) March 22, 2021
Suliman has been tracking Covid-19 data provided by the National Health Department in his personal capacity since the end of March last year and has been creating and sharing his own graphs on Twitter.
“I think there has been a lot of interest with people asking where the country will be going because the graphs can help guide us and show us these trends,” he said.
South Africa is currently administering Covid-19 vaccines to healthcare workers as part of the Johnson and Johnson phase 3b research implementation study.
Suliman says it is important to note that the national roll-out has not yet begun and the implementation study forms part of the government's phase 1 plan which includes vaccinating 1.2 million health-care workers. About 15% of health-care workers have received the vaccine.
There could be a greater scope for the government to release more information, said Suliman, however, this might be limited by the research study and the country would need to wait for results from the researchers.
Weekly update #COVID19 in SA🇿🇦
— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) March 21, 2021
Most indicators going in the wrong directions this week! Need a clear resurgence plan and strategy 🧐⚠️
• Cases up 2% ⬆️
• Tests down 3% ⬇️
• Test positivity up 2% ⬆️
• Hospitalisations down 14% ⬇️
• Deaths up 33% ⬆️
• Vaccines down 15% ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/P8K06ZeZ2i