When criminals and their networks see there is little chance of being arrested and prosecuted for violent crimes, they are more likely to use violence, says the Institute for Security Studies.
The ISS head of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, Gareth Newham, was speaking to IOL following another drive-by shooting in Durban, in which two men were seriously wounded.
Spokesperson for Emer-G-Med, Kyle van Reenen, said that just after 7pm, emergency teams responded to a shooting in Havelock Road, in Greenwood Park.
He said both men sustained multiple gunshot wounds.
“They were treated and stabilised on scene before being taken to a nearby hospital for further care,” he said.
The men were believed to have been sitting in their vehicle when they came under fire. Van Reenen said the men’s car had been sprayed with bullets from the passing vehicle.
The day before, a man was gunned down in a drive-by shooting in Cato Manor. Van Reenen said the man's black Volkswagen Polo was found with multiple bullet holes.
Newham said the long-term trend was that serious violent crime, such as murder, attempted murder and armed robbery, had increase substantially in Durban since 2012.
He said that in 2021/22, Durban Central recorded a 32% increase in violent crime compared to the previous year, from 2 054 reported cases to 2 721. Durban Central police precinct therefore recorded the highest increase in total violent crime of any police precinct in the country last year
“Murder, in particular, increased by 50% between 2012 and 2020, after which there was a drop recorded in 2021 because of the lockdown regulations. However, the lockdown regulations had no positive impact on attempted murder which continued to increase during lockdown in 2020/21,” Newham said.
One of the key reasons for the increase was the substantial deterioration in police capability.
“I don’t have the figures for Durban but, nationally, the ability of the SAPS to solve murders dropped by 55% between 2012 and 2022. In 2012, the SAPS was able to detect or solve 31% of the murder cases. By 2021/22, and despite a 72% increase in their budget since 2012, the SAPS’s ability to solve murder had dropped to only 14.5% of the murder cases recorded. The situation for aggravated robbery is even worse. Only 10% of armed robberies were solved by the SAPS in 2021/22,” he said.
That meant 85% of murders and 90% of armed robbery cases went unsolved and the perpetrators therefore continued with the crimes.
“The only way to reduce armed violence is through effective policing that is intelligence-driven and supported by dedicated and properly resourced detective units.
“Unfortunately, these capabilities have declined substantially over the past decade and there appears to be no plan in place to halt this decline or to improve the situation. The need for proper police reform is therefore becoming increasingly urgent,” Newham said.
IOL