Springboks Favoured in Argentina Clash
As the Rugby Championship reaches its fifth round, the Springboks head into their crucial clash with Argentina on the cusp of claiming the title. South Africa needs just three points to secure their first Rugby Championship trophy since 2019, making this match a high-stakes affair. The game will take place on Saturday, 21st September, at the Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago, with a late kick-off at 23:00 SAST.
With the Springboks fielding a strong side and Argentina hoping to spoil their title bid, let’s look at the latest betting odds, expert predictions, and key factors that could influence your wagers for this game.
Current Betting Odds
The odds are in favour of South Africa, reflecting their strong recent performances, though Argentina is known for being a formidable opponent at home. Here’s a breakdown of the key odds according to Betway:
South Africa:
- Win: 1.29 (Bet R100 to win R129)
- Halftime/Fulltime: 1.48 (Bet R100 to win R148)
- Handicap -12.5: 2.14 (Bet R100 to win R214)
- Winning Margin 1-7 points: 4.10 (Bet R100 to win R410)
- Winning Margin 8-14 points: 3.55 (Bet R100 to win R355)
- Winning Margin 15+ points: 2.38 (Bet R100 to win R238)
Argentina:
- Win: 4.00 (Bet R100 to win R400)
- Halftime/Fulltime: 6.80 (Bet R100 to win R680)
- Winning Margin 1-7 points: 7.20 (Bet R100 to win R720)
- Winning Margin 8-14 points: 18.00 (Bet R100 to win R1,800)
- Winning Margin 15+ points: 50.00 (Bet R100 to win R5,000)
- Race to 10 Points: 2.35 (Bet R100 to win R235)
Other Markets:
- Draw: 35.00 (Bet R100 to win R3,500)
- Halftime/Fulltime (Argentina/South Africa): 5.80 (Bet R100 to win R580)
- Most Points Scored in the First Half: 1.88 (Bet R100 to win R188)
With such a range of options, bettors can consider a variety of angles for this thrilling match.
Key Factors Influencing the Odds
1. Team Form and Recent Performance
South Africa comes into this match on a hot streak, winning their last five games, which includes victories against rugby powerhouses like the All Blacks and Australia. This form has pushed the Springboks into pole position to lift the Rugby Championship trophy.
Meanwhile, Argentina has had an inconsistent campaign, with their most notable victories over the All Blacks and Australia. Playing at home, however, the Pumas will be determined to make a statement and upset South Africa’s title hopes.
2. Player Selections and Injuries
Rassie Erasmus has made ten changes to the Springboks starting XV, opting for fresh legs while still fielding a strong side. The most notable inclusion is Eben Etzebeth, who will match Victor Matfield’s record with his 127th cap.
Ben-Jason Dixon also returns after a tough outing against New Zealand, while regulars like Ox Nche, Ruan Nortje, Jasper Wiese, Handré Pollard, and Jesse Kriel maintain their spots. However, seven key Springboks players, including Willie le Roux and Cheslin Kolbe, have been rested.
Argentina, on the other hand, is fielding a team that has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled to string together consistent performances. The Pumas’ hopes will rest heavily on the likes of Pablo Matera and Thomas Gallo, but facing a deep Springboks squad will be a tall order.
3. Home Advantage
Playing at the Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades gives Argentina an edge, as the Pumas are known for being tough to beat at home. South Africa’s last victory in Argentina was back in 2019, and while they are favoured to win this time, the passionate Argentinian fans will make life difficult for the Springboks.
Historically, Argentina has challenged the Springboks on home turf, and they will look to tap into that underdog spirit once again.
4. Historical Head-to-Head Record
South Africa has a dominant record over Argentina, but the Pumas have claimed some memorable victories in recent years. The Springboks’ historical dominance might explain the shorter odds for a comfortable victory, but Argentina’s ability to surprise should not be underestimated.
Expert Predictions and Insights
Rugby analysts are largely backing South Africa to win, but there is some debate about the margin. While many believe the Springboks will win comfortably, others suggest that the Pumas’ home advantage and South Africa’s squad rotation could result in a tighter contest.
Expert Quote: “[Eben Etzebeth’s return will be a huge boost for the Springboks. He’s a leader on the field and his experience will calm the squad, but Argentina are always tough at home and South Africa’s bench will need to make an impact if they want to clinch the title in style. This is going to be a fascinating encounter].”
Betting Tips
Given the odds and the factors at play, here are a few betting tips to consider.
1. Consider the Handicap Market
If you believe South Africa will win by a comfortable margin, the -12.5 handicap at 2.14 offers decent value. The Springboks’ depth and recent form make this a strong option, especially if they dominate the second half.
2. Closer Winning Margins
If you expect a closer contest, betting on South Africa to win by 1-7 points (4.10) could be a smart play. Argentina’s home advantage and the Springboks’ squad rotation might result in a tighter match, and this market provides good odds for that scenario.
3. Race to 10 Points
With Argentina priced at 2.35 to score 10 points first, there is potential value here. If the Pumas get off to a fast start in front of their home crowd, this could offer a good return.
4. In-Play Betting
Live betting allows you to see how the game unfolds and adjust your bets accordingly. For instance, if South Africa struggles in the first half but has a strong bench, you could bet on them to dominate the second half or cover the handicap late in the game.
Conclusion
The Springboks are favourites to win this clash, but Argentina’s home advantage and unpredictability add intrigue to the betting landscape. Whether you’re betting on a Springboks victory, a tight margin, or an in-play opportunity, this promises to be a thrilling match that will likely decide the Rugby Championship title.
With so much at stake, make sure to keep a close eye on the game as it unfolds and adjust your bets accordingly for the best chances of success.
We are with Argentina leading at halftime and Springboks to take the win. With the odds at 5.80 should give us some decent returns.
Venue: Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades, Santiago
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant Referees: Matt Carley (England), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Springbok team: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon , 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Salmaan Moerat (c), 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jaden Hendrikse, 23 Manie Libbok
Pumas team: Not available at the time this article was written