A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo
The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342. ,
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers... which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labour government late last year.
REUTERS