IN WHAT has been described as a blow to the country’s economic recovery efforts, South Africans have been told to brace for a dark week as Eskom anticipates that it will only be able to stop the ramped-up power cuts by the end of the week.

The nation was suddenly thrust into stage 6 load shedding in the early hours of Sunday due to multiple unit trips at Camden Power Station.

“This measure followed the implementation of Stage 3, necessitated by multiple unit trips at Majuba Power Station and a unit trip at Medupi that resulted in a loss of 3 864 MW in generation capacity, while planned maintenance accounted for 7506 MW. Additionally to replenish emergency reserves and prepare for the week ahead, Stage 6 load shedding was essential,” said Eskom.

Addressing the media on Sunday Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the occurrence was not permanent, and that losing 3000MW in one go, coupled with maintenance outages, led to upping levels of load shedding from stage 3 to stage 6.

“We suffered a setback after 300 days of consecutive supply of electricity. During this period we were able to achieve 99% of electricity availability.

“We want to eliminate load shedding and we are confident that the actions we are taking are pointing us in the right direction. We have accepted there will be moments of setbacks and this is one of those we take full accountability. It does not end there. We will not deviate from the generation recovery plan. The levels of planned maintenance will continue at levels that are acceptable but also in a way that helps us to eliminate load shedding in the shortest possible time and ensure we achieve conditions of normality,” he said

He assured the public that by the end of the week, load shedding would be over.

Ramakgopa also dismissed claims of sabotage.

“I want to say to the rest of the country; that this is a technical issue. We must not find any reason to manufacture explanations of why we are at Stage 6. We are hoping to get back to normal by the end of the week. There is no sabotage,” he said.

Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane added: “What really pushed us was the loss of multiple units at Majuba power station. This was occasioned by an overload on a transformer as a result of a unit that was coming out of a long-term outage. That essentially started a domino effect of supply cutting and one by one the rest of the units gave in. It’s to do with the support of power to the compressors for both systems in the units. We have understood the exact nature of how the events came about and we were able to isolate it overnight and start addressing (it).”

In the coming week, he said they would be working to contain the issue and also assess where else in the fleet there may be risks.

For the Camden power station, he said they had a failure on the hydraulic valve.

Five to six units were planned to come back into operation yesterday.

“With the recovery pace we anticipate we should be stepping down from stage 6 by (Monday),” Marokane said.

Head of the Energy Secretariat at the South African National Energy Development Institute, Professor Sampson Mamphweli said by his estimate at the end of this week, the country should see a significant improvement, with load shedding potentially dropping to Stage 1, unless there are unforeseen factors.

“I agree with the minister that these challenges do not lie within the main plant but rather in what is referred to as the ‘balance of the plant’. The main plant is functioning properly, while auxiliary systems are causing disruptions. From the Eskom briefing, it appears that multiple trips occurred at power stations due to minor issues. For example, there were trips at Medupi, an overload on a transformer, and issues related to the design of the power station, where one unit providing auxiliary services failed, causing cascading problems that took out approximately 3,000 MW. These failures affected the entire power system, with additional trips occurring at Medupi and external low-voltage issues.

“Eskom did not anticipate this situation, as they had ramped up maintenance in preparation for the winter outlook, leaving them with no other option but to rely on reserves, leading to the higher load-shedding stages we are currently experiencing. However, Eskom has already managed to bring back six units, with another unit expected to return soon. Based on their outlook, load shedding should end toward the end of the week.”

Mamphweli said problems described are quite different from past issues.

“Previously, Stage 6 load shedding was triggered by environmental compliance concerns, emissions issues, and breakdowns in the main plant. Now, we are seeing failures on the auxiliary side of operations. These issues are easier to address as part of the operational and generation recovery plan.”

Energy analyst Hugo Kruger said while this was a “black swan” or an event that comes as a surprise, the risk management strategy was “poor”.

“Risks must be identified before they happen, you need to have a strategy in place to minimise those risks. Who is responsible for that plan, how are you going to prevent this next time? The VGBE report found the root cause of load shedding was the management system of Eskom because the roles and responsibilities are not adequately defined. These are not technical challenges, these are management challenges,” said Kruger.

Economist Duma Gqubule said stage 6 load shedding will have wide implications in terms of economic growth and it will also affect jobs.

Gqubule said stage 6 load shedding is going to shake the national and international confidence in the economy and that the recovery of Eskom and Transnet are far from complete.

He added that there has been a collapse of the public investment funds for the past 15 to 20 years, and yet the government is chasing private sector investment, which “is not going to come at this stage”

“The government has not been investing in infrastructure. They must invest in the transport and energy infrastructures. In Johannesburg, there is a huge load reduction due to infrastructure breakdown at a distributor level and they also have water infrastructure failures, which is bad for the economy,” Gqubule said.

*Additional reporting Gcwalisile Khanyile

Cape Times