South Africa's naval drills with Russia, China risk US, EU trade fallout, experts warn
A general view of the Chinese guided- missile destroyer Tangshan, right, and the Chinese comprehensive supply ship Taihu, left, moored in False Bay, close to Simon’s Town, near Cape Town, this week. The People’s Republic of China will lead a joint, interagency, inter-departmental, multinational exercise in South African waters from Friday. Exercise WILL FOR PEACE 2026 brings together navies from BRICS Plus countries.
Image: AFP
The joint military exercises planned to take place off the coast of South Africa from today, January 9, could cause the country further financial turmoil by “irritating” its key trading partners.
Military experts have warned that while the exercises are unlikely to provoke a military reaction from countries like the US, they could, however, trigger an even harsher financial response.
The naval exercises are planned with Russia, China, and Iran. They have been labelled as BRICS Plus, although India and Brazil are not taking part. The opening ceremony is on January 10.
The relationship between South Africa and the US is at its lowest ebb since the return of Donald Trump as US president. The two countries have been at loggerheads, with the USA imposing tariffs of 30% on South Africa.
Chris Hattingh, DA spokesperson on Defence and Military Veterans, said a China-led naval exercise involving foreign navies in South Africa could undermine the country’s non-aligned stance.
“Hosting and training with such forces cannot be described as neutral or non-aligned. It is a political choice, whether the government admits it or not. South Africa’s policy of non-alignment is losing credibility because our words and actions no longer match,” he added.
He said while the government insists it is neutral, defence cooperation with democratic partners is falling apart.
“Joint exercises with the United States have been cancelled and trust is being damaged. As more time goes on, South Africa’s BRICS membership has rendered the country a pawn in the power games being waged by rogue states on the international stage.”
Military analyst Kobus Marais said although cooperative naval exercises can be good and beneficial, there are few or no benefits for the SA navy and its defence capabilities.
“We don't have the vessels, technology, and development programmes to benefit through piggyback strategies. This is partially the result of poor political and operational leadership and the constant defunding of specifically our naval and air force budgets.”
“This exercise is of more value to Russia, China, and Iran to irritate the USA, UK, and EU, with South Africa as their proverbial useful idiot. We are in no position to irritate and risk our most important trading partners. The three exercise partners are in no position to replace and 'make up' for the potential trading losses we could suffer from losing the lucrative export markets of the USA, UK, and EU. Further export and trading losses could damage our economic growth and would most probably lead to further job losses. We can't afford this at this sensitive time. The contrary should be our objective,” he said.
Military expert Helmoed Heitman said any military exercise is good and there is always an opportunity to learn how to do things.
“In principle, it is a good idea. It makes a lot of sense to exercise with the Chinese; they are a growing naval power. It makes a lot less sense to be exercising with Russia and Iran, as they are strategically and economically irrelevant to us and both are regarded as bullies and enemies by most of their neighbours. That puts us in a position of saying to a lot of our friends, 'We are friends with your regional bullies,' and that is particularly bad as most of our trade is with Europe and the USA,” he added.
“The Europeans are not going to be pleased. We do need to be careful with our foreign policy; sometimes it seems like we do not know what we are doing. There is little risk of being dragged into someone else's conflict, but there are economic risks,” he stated.
He said South Africa was not likely to face the same fate as Venezuela, pointing out, “We are not important to them (USA).”
He added that South Africa is supposed to be a neutral state and must be neutral, which could be achieved by organising other exercises with nations like France and Germany.
The SANDF declined to speak on the exercises and only stated that a joint statement will be released close to the event once the ships expected to take part have been confirmed and have arrived. The SANDF also said that South Africa was only providing space for the event and that the exercises are led by China.