ANC must be truthful in its diagnosis of KZN poll losses

Prof Bheki Mngomezulu

Before the May 29 general election, KZN attracted many political parties, each of them hoping to do well in the province which was second to Gauteng in terms of registered voters. When the results of the election were announced on June 2, 2024, it was the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) that outperformed all other political competitors.

With the election having come and gone and the multiparty coalition government having been established under what others call the “Government of Provincial Unity” (GPU), the ANC has decided to do self-introspection. The party wants to understand where things went wrong which resulted in the ANC’s dismal performance of only 17% of the votes against the MKP’s 45%.

Within this broader context, the ANC’s National Working Committee (NWC) took a correct decision to visit KZN once again. This time, the aim was not to mobilise support, as was the case before the election. Instead, the NWC went to KZN to achieve two objectives.

The first was to meet the leadership from all 11 regions to solicit their views on what led to the ANC’s poor performance in the province. The second was to identify strategies that the ANC could employ in preparation for the 2026 Local Government Election (LGE) and the 2019 general election. In other words, the NWC wanted to assist the ANC regain its lost ground.

Surely, there was nothing wrong with the decision. In fact, it was the right move by the party. While it is true that some of the answers to the party’s poor performance are well-known to the ANC, the decision to hear from leaders on the ground was the correct approach.

However, there was something concerning about the statements made by Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as ANC president, and by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. Both created the wrong impression that the ANC enjoyed huge support in KZN. This was even though the election results painted a different picture.

Intriguingly, the NWC’s visit to KZN coincided with the Gauteng ANC’s provincial executive committee lekgotla. Presenting his analysis, Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi was honest in likening the ANC to a sinking ship which was going down swiftly.

He warned delegates against wrestling for positions instead of saving the ANC from collapse. Lesufi averred that those who were fighting for the leadership of the ANC were missing the point. He said that fighting to be the captain of a sinking ship was myopic because by the time one ascended to captaincy, the ship would be in the ocean’s belly.

It is such an honest analysis that the NWC needed to make in KZN instead of claiming that the ANC enjoyed significant support. Such diagnosis has the danger to lead to complacency, one of the reasons which saw the ANC performing so dismally in the May 2024 general election.

Of the 11 ANC regions in KZN, eThekwini leads the pack. For many years, the region has always been the biggest for the ANC nationally. When Philani Mavundla assisted the ANC in retaining eThekwini after the 2021 LGE, he saved the party from losing the only metropolitan municipality in KZN.

Having retained the metro by a whisker, has the ANC learnt from the experience? Put differently, what has the party done to regain support in eThekwini so that it does not lose its control in the upcoming 2026 LGE?

It is an irrefutable fact that one of the reasons for the ANC’s poor performance in KZN in general and in eThekwini particularly has been the emergence of the MKP. What has the NWC identified as its strategies to counter the rise of the MKP? Will the NWC’s claim that enjoyed significant support in KZN miraculously reverse the loses the ANC suffered in May? I don’t think so.

If the ANC were to cogently enumerate the causal factors for its dismal performance and win eThekwini region in the upcoming 2026 LGE, this would augur well for the party. It could use its success in the region to plan for its other 10 regions in KZN.

On the other hand, if the NWC’s diagnosis was wrong, certainly, the ANC’s response strategy would also be wrong. Inevitably, it would be impossible for the party to regain lost ground or to win back its former supporters who have joined the MKP, moved to other political parties or decided not to vote.

Against this background, the NWC needs to get a few things right.

First, it must be honest in its analysis of the ANC’s performance in KZN. While meeting the political leadership is justifiable, the NWC needs to talk directly to ANC members and supporters to get the real reasons for the party’s bad performance.

Second, the NWC must propose rational strategies that will change the ANC’s fortunes.

Third, the NWC must refrain from undermining the impact of the MKP. This is the same mistake that led to the ANC failing to counter the MKP and its leader, Jacob Zuma.

Fourth, the NWC must rise above factional politics and place the ANC’s interests first.

Last, cheerleaders within the ANC must be exposed. Applauding leaders who make a wrong diagnosis of the situation will kill the ANC.

* Prof Bheki Mngomezulu, director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at the Nelson Mandela University.

** The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media