Trump envoy arrives in Pretoria amid strained US-SA ties

The arrival of the new US Ambassador-designate, Leo Brent Bozell III, is likely to shift the US- South Africa relations from a diplomatic, consensus-seeking approach to one that is aggressive, ideological and confrontational, potentially intensifying tension between the two countries.

This is according to an international relations expert, Professor Theo Neethling, who said this marks the beginning of what could be a more assertive and potentially tense chapter in bilateral relations. 

South Africa is the US’s largest trade partner in Africa, with two-way goods trade estimated at approximately $20,5 billion to $21,1 billion in 2023. More than 600 US companies operate in South Africa.

However, tension between the two countries deteriorated due to intense geopolitical friction, driven by South Africa’s non-aligned stance, strengthening ties with Russia and China, and conflicts over the Israel-Palestine issue. 

The return of the Donald Trump administration in 2025 accelerated the tension, with executive orders concerning South African land reform and diplomatic friction, such as the March 2025 expulsion of South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool.

South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and diplomatic confrontations over the conflict in Gaza also strained ties.

The tension further intensified after South Africa last month expelled Israel’s diplomat, Ariel Seidman, declaring him persona non-grata following his failure to notify the government of official visits by senior Israeli officials to local leaders, specifically King Buyelekhaya Dalindyebo in the Eastern Cape.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) framed these actions as a “gross abuse of diplomatic privilege” and a challenge to South Africa's sovereignty.

The US described the expulsion as politically motivated and "damaging" to South Africa's interests. This comes as the US lawmakers are currently debating South Africa’s exclusion from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) preferential trade agreement.

Bozell, who has a long history of critical commentary regarding South Africa’s leadership and its transition from apartheid, in October issued a warning that Pretoria is moving away from non-alignment and closer to "competitors" such as Russia, China, and Iran, and promised to stop what he called South Africa's "geostrategic drift" in the direction of America's international rivals. 

He also promised to press South Africa to withdraw its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, describing the legal action as “lawfare”. He also pledged to advance a programme for Afrikaners who wish to “flee unjust racial discrimination”, echoing claims of “white genocide” that the South African government has repeatedly dismissed as a false narrative.

However, Neethling said this is likely to deepen tensions between the US and South Africa.

“The ICJ case is central to South Africa’s foreign policy identity under the ANC, which frames support for Palestinian rights as a moral imperative. Direct US pressure to abandon it would likely deepen, not resolve, tensions. Similarly, the refugee issue touches sensitive domestic terrain. While Pretoria rejects claims of white persecution, it has indicated it will not obstruct the programme, a sign of cautious pragmatism,” he said, adding that Ramaphosa could technically delay accepting Bozell’s credentials. 

“But this is unlikely in the short term.”

Asked what to expect on the way forward regarding Bozell’s arrival, both the DIRCO spokesperson Chrispin Phri and Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vince Magwenya, declined to comment, saying the government does not issue statements about the arrival of Ambassadors or outline expectations of them outside of the expected adherence to established norms and rules. 

During his State of the Nation Address (SONA), Ramaphosa declared that South Africa will not be “bullied” by any other country, emphasising that the country’s commitment to sovereignty and self-determination is “sacrosanct” and “not negotiable”.

He reaffirmed that South Africa will maintain an independent foreign policy, specifically mentioning continued solidarity with those facing oppression and war in Palestine and Sudan.

These remarks were widely interpreted as a response to pressure from the United States, particularly regarding South Africa's land reform policies and its diplomatic positions.

Another international relations expert, Professor Kgothatso Shai, said Bozell may wish to seize the difficult moment to 'make a name for himself by playing a saviour role and working hard to improve the spoiled relations'. 

Shai said Bozell’s previous views on South Africa’s international and national relations matters less because his new role would demand a professional diplomatic posture. 

“He knows well that South Africa has already used (the expulsion of the) Israeli diplomat as an example on how to deal decisively with unbecoming diplomatic conduct. But diplomacy is all about persuasion, being able to persuade others and being ready to be persuaded. So, only time will tell what Leo Brent Bozell III holds for South Africa and the US."

manyane.manyane@inl.co.za