How does SA benefit from a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win?
Donald Trump has already declared an early victory following Tuesday’s elections in the United States.
On Tuesday, thousands of Americans voted in the country’s elections.
Aluma Capital economist, Frederick Mitchell, unpacks what South Africa’s economic future could look like if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is named the next United States president.
So, what does this mean for South Africa and why should you as a South African care about US elections?
Well for one, our currency is sensitive to US economic policies, market movements and US sentiment towards emerging markets.
"Aggressive trade actions from the US may trigger a depreciation of the Rand, complicating the import landscape while driving up import prices as a result. Conversely, anticipated investment and trade could strengthen the currency, contingent on the US market’s response to Trump’s or Kamala’s policies," explained Mitchell.
He pointed out that a potential Trump or Harris victory brings both opportunities and challenges for South Africa.
"Stronger economic growth and stable trade policies could yield significant benefits, but protectionist measures and geopolitical tensions present substantial risks. To navigate these complexities, South Africa should capitalise on African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) opportunities while preparing for possible uncertainties," he said.
Mitchell explained that market volatility is likely inevitable, "particularly when political risks influence various asset classes, resulting in significant fluctuations in listed stocks, bonds, and currency values."
He added that the event of either a Trump or Harris administration, returns on private equity and alternative investments may be less volatile and more stable due to the nature of these assets, which often respond differently to political risk compared to publicly traded securities.
"As global markets continue to evolve, adaptability will be essential for fostering a bright economic future, irrespective of the political climate in the United States. Effectively managing these dynamics will help ensure sustained growth and stability for the South African economy," Mitchell said.
IOL