The decision by the ANC’s top leaders to charge the wayward youth league president Julius Malema signals a significant tipping of the balance of forces and circumstances in favour of President Jacob Zuma.
The decision is not without risks though, including the possibility that it might anger the party’s provincial chairs who convened a meeting last Saturday where the ANCYL’s apology was crafted.
Zuma’s hand might have been strengthened by the collapse of the ANCYL’s campaign to have him removed as president at the ruling party’s national conference in Mangaung, Free State, in December next year. The league has for some time been trying to collar the party’s deputy president, Kgalema Motlanthe, to head its campaign, commonly referred to as a slate by ANC insiders.
Under pressure from ANC veterans, who have impressed upon him the need for the ANC to maintain unity, especially during its centenary year, Motlanthe, sources say, has signalled that he will not run.
Veterans have also pointed out that the ANC has not yet recovered from the blows it suffered in the run up to and after its Polokwane national conference in 2007. Without a presidential candidate, the youth league’s campaign, which also included fielding Fikile Mbalula for the post of secretary-general, will not fly.
With age on his side – he will be 65 when Zuma’s second term ends in 2014 – Motlanthe can wait it out until then.
The youth league’s other tactical blunder was to link its nationalisation campaign to changes in the leadership of the ANC.
Nationalisation has caused much angst within the ruling party, especially its veterans, with some members of the national executive committee hinting that if the ANC fails to squash the policy proposal, Zuma must call a national referendum on the issue.
So even those within the ANC who would have entertained a challenge to Zuma in Mangaung got put off by the challenge being inextricably linked to nationalisation.
The risk with charging Malema though, especially if the disciplinary committee goes for his jugular, is that it might irk the provincial chairs who might have thought that their intervention last Saturday would reduce tensions within the party and even possibly save Malema from being kicked out of the ruling party.
After a week of intense speculation about the top leadership of the ANC going for Malema’s neck, Gauteng chairperson and Arts and Culture Minister Paul Mashatile convened a meeting of fellow provincial chairs on Saturday morning, to which Malema and his major backer Mbalula were also invited.
Mbalula is a member of the ANC’s national executive committee and the Minister of Sports.
The provincial chairs, who also sit on the national executive committee, told the ANCYL to apologise and then drafted the statement that the league sent out at midday on Saturday.
ANC Gauteng spokesman Dumisa Ntuli would only say he was not aware of last Saturday’s meeting, but Independent Newspapers has confirmed the meeting with three sources.
Though a collective of chairs is not sanctioned by the ANC constitution, they form a powerful voice within the party.
Though Independent Newspapers has not been able to establish what other issues the chairs discussed with Malema and Mbalula, a chain of events since that meeting gives hints.
The most significant events are the ANCYL’s apology and this week’s withdrawal by Mbalula of his bid to get the cabinet to reverse its decision on South Africa’s bid for the 2020 Olympics.
It is also possible that Mbalula’s withdrawal came about after he and Zuma came to some sort of understanding during the president’s visit to Burundi last week.
The cabinet decided at its May 25 meeting that “it is better for the country to consolidate the gains of the 2010 World Cup for now and rather focus the country’s attention to the delivery of basic services to all South Africans”.
Soon after the cabinet decision, Mbalula went public, saying he hoped South Africa would reconsider.
He then continued to make public pronouncements on the bid, and early this month announced that a revised proposal, including research, would be tabled before the relevant cabinet sub-committee as well as the full cabinet before the end of September.
Mbalula’s campaign was significant for two reasons. One, the country’s constitution states clearly that members of the cabinet “are accountable collectively and individually” to Parliament in exercising their power and for the performance of their functions.
Two, Mbalula’s actions were a clear challenge to President Jacob Zuma’s authority. In other countries, especially the UK, ministers resign when they disagree with government policy.
This recent action was the resignation in 2003 by Robin Cook and Claire Short who disagreed with Tony Blair’s government policy on the Iraqi war.
Mbalula’s other misstep was to come out publicly in support of nationalisation, a move which also pitched him against his cabinet colleagues who have been telling investors that nationalisation was not government policy.
Zuma may have taken advantage of a blunder by his enemies, but risks abound for him too.