How can they both survive?

Julius Malema and President Jacob Zuma need each other to survive the political storm ahead of the ANC’s national conference next year.

They are both equally loathed by some factions in the ANC. Their supporters don’t necessarily like them but they back them for selfish reasons. They will survive (not because they are popular) but because no one will dare contest them.

Zuma’s weak leadership prods some anti-Juju supporters towards Malema, and the latter’s delinquency nudges some anti-Zuma lot towards the president.

This is why the impending charges (if any) against Malema are likely to cause the rift in the organisation and rattle the president’s unstable leadership.

But Zuma doesn’t have a choice but to crack the whip because he promised the ANC’s National General Council, a midterm gathering between elective conferences, that he would instil discipline in the organisation that is certainly falling apart under his watch.

And most of the delegates at the NGC last spring knew that Zuma was referring to Malema, who appeared to be a political leper at the time because some viewed his misbehaviour as an attack on the ANC presidency. He rapped Juju on the knuckles, hoping the storm would vanish.

But the Juju v JZ duel continued for almost a year after the NGC, with both believing in their ego, strength, authority and power (if not delusion of grandeur). Both of them are not in good political shape.

Zuma is under fire from his erstwhile friends – from the youth league to some in Cosatu. Those who pretend to be supporting him, especially in the SACP, are merely putting up a fight to advance their careers, not because they believe in his leadership.

Some of the very same people whisper behind his back about how bad and useless he is as a leader. Others are hoping for another scandal, anything, that could ruin his chances of a second term when his party meets at its conference next year.

He will glow in the glory of leading a 100-year old party, something that his predecessor Thabo Mbeki wanted so desperately.

But like Mbeki, he is aware that a faction in the party wishes him away. His survival depends on the weakness of that faction.

Ironically, some in the same faction do not necessarily want Juju. In fact, they blame Zuma for creating Juju. To them, he is the mad Frankenstein who is unable to control the little monster running the league.

This is why the sound of cheers from the NGC delegates after Zuma’s harshest rebuke of the league, boosted the president’s shaky authority – temporarily, though. He was convinced from that moment that Juju is actually expendable, his power is illusionary and his constituency is feeble – comprising mostly tender crooks and militant kindergarten bullies with no real political base. He could be underestimating this young tenderpreneur.

Malema might gloat that three ANC provincial secretaries – in North West, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape – are former and present youth league leaders, and therefore his allies.

Juju could also boast that he has a full authority of a fourth province, Limpopo.

But he must not forget that provinces are not necessarily homogenous, and factionalism is the order of the day. Actually, his staunchest enemies are in Limpopo.

The president is aware, too, that the majority of his national executive committee (NEC) members cannot tolerate Juju’s tantrums and rudeness, but are merely scared of the 30-year old Seshego boy.

To some in the ANC’s second highest body, Juju is a nuisance and a political scarecrow for voters (Gwede Mantashe has admitted that Malema cost the ANC some votes with his accusations that whites are criminals). But to others, Juju is a necessary and useful nuisance, and Zuma is also conscious (and cautious) of this.

He is aware that there are NEC members who secretly, and a few overtly, support Malema and are prepared to appease the young chap to save their political careers.

However, only a few – and I mean very few – are likely to raise their hands when he is in trouble.

And there are those who can’t stand Juju, but want Zuma out. They opportunistically exploit any vilification of Malema to campaign against the president getting a second term as party president. They are a silent but significant lot, but not necessarily the majority. They are found in the ANC NEC and the alliance.

This is why a senior ANC leader warned at the weekend that any charging of Malema would ignite a second Polokwane, (I thought the ANC was in a perpetual Polokwane mode). The leader described such an action as a declaration of war.

They will indeed put up a fight for Malema. They will exploit Zuma’s weaknesses – such as his so-called weak leadership, personal imperfection and inability to act against corruption – to try to convince their constituency that the man from Nkandla is not fit to continue ruling the party and the country. They will definitely market Juju as, ironically and funnily, another Zuma – a victim of political conspiracy and abuse of power.

And Malema’s controversial wealth and tender scandals do not matter to them because Zuma was equally facing corruption allegations when there was a massive campaign to paint him as an innocent presidential candidate. He was projected as a victim of the power-drunk Thabo Mbeki. It worked for him. It might work for Malema. Any attempt to nail Malema will be (mis)construed as abuse of state resources. This phrase is already doing the rounds.

It could be why Malema arrogantly challenged everyone to disclose their trust accounts following allegations that he was running a kickback scam using his only son’s trust fund. Therefore, the two are most likely to survive. I may be wrong.