This town ain’t big enough

Julius Malema should start preparing for life outside the ANC. He might as well prepare for a taxing and hawkish duel with Sars and the Hawks. The national disciplinary committee did not entertain any of his technical objections to the charges.

And he is perceived as a liability by President Jacob Zuma. His fate seems sealed.

It will be the first time the league has been punished so harshly since Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu and Duma Nokwe were threatened with dismissal in the late 1940s. Mandela had accused Chief Albert Luthuli of being a coward after the latter refused to brief the ANC on his discussions with future leaders of the Liberal Party.

Luthuli threatened to resign.

Nokwe and Sisulu had attended the World Youth Festival in Bucharest and visited China to solicit arms without the party’s permission.

Ironically, the same Mandela withheld funds from Lulu Johnson’s youth league in the mid-1990s when the youth criticised the Springbok emblem.

But Malema will be the first natyouth leader to get the boot since Ruben Mohlaloga was fired by Malema’s ally Fikile Mbalula in 2006.

If I am wrong, Zuma should then ready himself for retirement.

Otherwise his second term (with Malema in the picture) will be excruciating.

Like I said last month, Malema and Zuma’s survival depends on each other’s downfall.

Should Malema get suspended or fired, his fate lies in the hands of Cyril Ramaphosa’s appeals committee.

Juju and his team are already questioning the impartiality of the national disciplinary committee chaired by Derek Hanekom.

Some close to the disciplinary process - I shall call them so-called insiders - conspiratorially believe that Hanekom’s committee has already received orders from Zuma to fire Juju.

These “insiders” believe that the disciplinary committee has ignored the thrust of the league’s objection to the charges.

For instance, they argue that Collins Chabane should have recused himself from the hearing because his son – Musa – was on the Limpopo youth league executive that was at war with Juju last year.

They also argue that Ayanda Dlodlo sits on the disciplinary committee while she is secretary-general of the MK Veterans Association which has declared war on the league.

The so-called insiders also claim that some of the offences were initially ignored by the ANC, such as Malema calling white people “criminals” earlier this year.

But Malema should have thought of all these before his political recklessness.

Like in any institution, you ought to tread carefully, especially when you know that your boss doesn’t want you.

Remember, internal processes do not adhere to the beyond-reasonable-doubt test.

Therefore Malema is unlikely to survive a second disciplinary process next week. Zuma is gatvol.

But will Malema survive Ramaphosa’s committee? Neither Malema nor Zuma can manipulate the party’s former secretary-general.

I am not suggesting that Hanekom and his team were manipulated.

Ramaphosa’s team includes Trevor Manuel, who is not a friend of either Zuma or Juju.

But let’s not forget that Manuel was one of the NEC members who questioned the league’s challenge of the outcome of the last disciplinary action against Malema.

Manuel also questioned why ANC treasurer-general Mathews Phosa represented Malema.

Juju subsequently, and foolishly so, questioned Manuel’s competence as Planning Minister.

It is not clear if Jessie Duarte – another member of the appeals committee – has forgiven Malema’s league for calling for her dismissal as the ANC’s spokeswoman in 2008.

But it would be unfair to question their impartiality based on these incidents.

Justice Minister Jeff Radebe, who seems to have fashioned himself as Zuma’s flak-catcher, also sits on the committee, as well as his predecessor Brigitte Mabandla, who appears indifferent to the current political climate.

Malema should instead be worried about two of the three alternating members of the committee, Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu and Public Enterprise Minister Malusi Gigaba, who have seemingly tired of the young man.

Malema must pray that the third alternating member, MP Thaba Mufamadi, with whom he has a rather genial relationship, sits on the appeal hearing.

The appeal committee’s decision is final but could be reviewed by the NEC.

If he loses on both, Malema could still hope for some mercy from the national conference next year. But then again the conference might ignore him.

So far, he is likely to capitalise on the support of those who resent Zuma because discipline in the ANC has broken down largely due to lack of leadership.

He could also exploit the mistrust among Zuma and his top officials.

A day before Malema’s hearing began, some of the ANC’s top six officials were accused of being involved in the league president’s defence. A very senior leader was warned that his name would appear on Malema supporters’ placards.

This could explain why the top officials issued a bizarrely unusual statement reaffirming “processes pertaining to the disciplinary procedures and standing traditions of the ANC”.

Why?

Phosa made it clear that he was on Juju’s side when he assumed his defence in the first disciplinary hearing last year.

While Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe believes in principles of the process, his relationship with Zuma is deteriorating.

Chairwoman Baleka Mbete and deputy secretary-general Thandi Modise are unlikely to openly stand by Juju, while secretary-general Gwede Mantashe can’t stand Malema.

But the top officials’ (dis)loyalty is least of Zuma’s concern. Most of them do not have a measurable constituency.

Zuma’s biggest worry will be whether the structures are on his side, especially provinces. He has warned Gauteng ANC chairman Paul Mashatile, at the last special NEC meeting, against his province’s “premature” pronouncement on succession.

While he doesn’t trust Gauteng, this does not mean the province conversely supports Malema. Half of Limpopo is likely to oppose Zuma openly. But it is equally safe to say (like I said before) that half of the same province is Malema-fatigued.

Malema, if fired, would still have some influence in Limpopo, but this would be affected by his absence from the centre stage. He might find life outside the ANC colder, taxing and unglamorous.